How Tariffs Could Change Your Grocery Shopping Experience

Among the biggest promises that came out of Donald Trump's presidential campaign were 100% tariffs on Mexican goods, 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, and 20% tariffs on everything else. The idea behind the tariffs seems solid. They're meant to encourage more manufacturing on American soil, decrease the national debt, and — maybe most important for struggling Americans — put more food on the table at lower prices. 

However, according to the think tank Third Way, the proposed tariffs come with hidden costs that won't favor American wallets. Americans will be paying out, on average, $736 more by the end of the year between the additional grocery costs ($185) and the increased prices in big-box stores ($551). Overall, Third Way expects a price increase of 3.3% instead of a drop in prices.

Tariffs have the potential to spark price hikes because of how imports work. Tariffs cause manufacturers and retailers to pay more for the imported goods on their end. In turn, they pass the price increases onto consumers. The problem is exacerbated by the soft consumer spending that sometimes arises from these types of price increases. More plainly, if consumers have to pay more for food and other necessities, they spend less on other things because their dollars only stretch so far. That makes for a more sluggish economy.

Third Way, a nonprofit think tank that champions center-left ideas, took a look at some common food and big-box store items and compared budgets representing a family of four to predict how potential price increases could play out once tariffs are imposed on foreign imports. Coffee would jump from $6.70 to $6.93, adding $0.23 per pound. Imported beer prices go from $10.87 to $11.20, adding $0.33 to the beer's bottom line. Avocados see a price increase from $7.58 to $7.83 for 2 pounds, showing a $0.25 price elevation. And frozen beef increases by $1.09 for every 3 pounds, with pre-tariff prices starting at $26.67 and post-tariff prices coming in at $27.76, according to Third Way's research.

Things will be no better at big-box stores, which include stores that occupy lots of physical space (often 50,000 square feet or more) and offer a variety of products for sale, such as Walmart and Target. Non-food items that consumers buy from big-box outlets see at least a 15% increase. Some examples include over-the-counter meds, which increase from $11.81 to $12.21, and ceramic dishware, which jumps from $46.66 per unit to $56.01 per unit.

The economy played a big role in the 2024 election. Items like margarine, frozen juices, carbonated beverages, cooking oils and fats, and even some brands of peanut butter have seen price increases of around 50% since 2020, per Pew Research Center. But it's probably the price of eggs, which saw a peak price increase of 94% in 2023, that left some of the biggest impressions on consumer wallets and, subsequently, their election choices.

And while the jump in prices obviously affects voters' personal finances, the upcoming tariffs come with even broader implications. A tariff on Mexican goods violates the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement, for example. Tariffs here may spark retaliatory tariffs on goods leaving the United States too. The European Union set down a 25% tariff on American whiskey as a result of tariffs placed on American-bound imports of steel and aluminum from the EU in 2018. Additional tariffs were placed on various spirits originating in the U.S. in subsequent years, as well, according to the Distilled Spirits Council. 

All in all, the new tariffs on imports could make it harder for Americans to save money on food, no matter how good they might be at budgeting.